NCAA Basketball Gambling: Indiana exposed on defense in Big Ten play

College Basketball Handicapper Game Previews 1-18-2012

Submitted by Rob VenoGames that just missed the cut for tonight?s college basketball card. To purchase official selections, click here. Mississippi State at Mississippi OVER 130.5? Looks as if we?ll see contrasting philosophies in this game where the overall tempo is concerned. MSU head coach Rick Stansbury would prefer to get his electric PG Dee Bost and athletic running post man Arnett Moultrie out on the break as much as possible to avoid down low infighting with Ole Miss brawlers Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner. Meanwhile, Andy Kennedy would like is Rebels to feature more offensive ball movement and good shot selection. Mississippi is not without its desire to push pace when the opportunity exists and they?ll certainly look for quick outlet and easy bucket transition opportunities. Free throws could be in abundance here because of the intense post play and the potential for aggressive late game fouling. Mississippi State?s 78.3% from the line in conference play (4 regulars 72% or better) is strong enough to negate Mississippi?s weak 64.2% SEC number and garner enough points to get this game beyond the necessary 130.5. Each game plan is likely to be a successful contributor to pushing this game OVER the total.? Tulsa -7.5 vs. Tulane? Find value in the home side which has seemingly regrouped with nice back-to-back SU and ATS wins at East Carolina and vs. UTEP. Look for that momentum to carry over here against a Tulane squad which has now learned that leading scorer Kendall Timmons is gone for the rest of the season. In their first contest without him last Saturday at home against Rice, Tulane held the Owls to an outstanding 29% FG shooting yet lost 50-49. The fact that they could only muster 49 points immediately showed the effects of losing Timmons and that should continue on the conference road against defensively stingy Tulsa. The recent increase of three-point shooting prowess (13-22 59.1%) led by guards Scotty Haralson, Jordan Clarkson and Eric McClellan combined with the uptick in play of 6-11 pivots Kodi Maduka and Steven Idlet figures to be too much for Tulane to overcome. The Green Wave likely need some time to realign and get comfortable without their star player to lean on. This is not the time or the setting to be in and even though tonight?s game pace will be methodical, covering -7.5 isn?t that much of a task for Tulsa.?? Murray State at Morehead State OVER 128.5? Murray State?s offense has yet to be slowed down this season and the defensive credentials of Morehead State don?t appear capable of changing that. For the season the Racers are shooting 50.1% from the field and 43% from 3-point range. Those numbers have increased in OVC play to 52.4% and 44.1% respectively. Morehead coach Donnie Tyndall?s Eagles (9-10) have regressed this season and that has really shown up on the defensive end where they have allowed 52.2% on 2-point field goals and 38.5% on threes. While both numbers are very permissive, it?s the latter that is the most troublesome here. Murray State?s sharpshooting duo of Isaiah Canaan (48.6% 3-point) and Donte Poole (41.1% 3-point) can repeatedly exploit this weakness which should push their team to 70+ points. Morehead has some shooting prowess of its own, connecting on 51.1% from inside three in six conference games and for all their attributes, Murray State has yielded 47.9% on 2-pointers this season. Each team is efficient at the foul line shooting 74% for the year which will help point production. Morehead?s slower tempo isn?t likely to win out here as Murray will push and in all likelihood force the Eagles to do the same when they?re in second half chase mode. Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno

NFL Playoff Gambling Notes: New England TE Hernandez upgraded to probable

Submitted by Otto SportsBaltimore at New England -6.5 O/U 50 With news trickling out today that Aaron Hernandez is expected to suit up this weekend it looks like New England will feature its ultra tough, two tight end attack. Hernandez was a question mark?heading into the week due to concussion concerns but was recently upgraded to probable. The former Florida Gators standout has combined with Rob Gronkowski for 169 receptions this season ? 24 of which went for touchdowns. Just how impressive have these guys been this year? Gronkowski finished fifth in the league in total receptions and slipped past Calvin ?Megatron? Johnson for the league lead in touchdowns. Hernandez, despite being the second option in terms of tight ends and third option overall, managed to record more receptions than stud receiver Hakeem Nicks and was tied with the explosive Steve Smith (who had a monster year for Carolina) for both receptions and touchdown grabs. Not many teams have slowed the combo down this season but here?s an interesting read about?a potential scheme for keeping the duo under wraps. ? Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots

NCAA Basketball Betting Alert: Rice?s leading scorer may be out for season

UAB at Rice -4 O/U 123 Reports have surfaced that Rice's leader scorer (14.3 ppg) and rebounder (12.0 rpg) Arsalan Kazemi may be done for the year with a knee injury. The Houston Chronicle is reporting that Kazemi posted the news on his Twitter account. He's currently listed as doubtful for tonight's game against UAB. Tags: College Basketball Rice Owls UAB Blazers Arsalan Kazemi

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Rhode Island Rams at Fordham Rams

Submitted by Alatex SportsRhode Island at Fordham -3.5 O/U 135? Recommendation: Fordham Rhode Island has been a complete disaster this year as it limps into this road contest with a 3-15 record. Head coach Jim Baron is taking heat and grasping at straws to turn this season around, but none of his lineup changes have worked. The Rams? wins thus far came against Boston College, James Madison and Hofstra. They kicked their best player, Jamal Wilson, off the team in December and added transfers Andre Malone and Baron?s son Billy who have had little to no impact. RI?s defense has been atrocious allowing 48.9 % from the field and 49.9% on the road. Fordham has made some improvements under head coach Tom Pecora, including home wins against Georgia Tech and Harvard. The Rams are coming off an 80-62 loss at St. Joe's and should be ready for a nice effort at home against an opponent that they should be able to beat. Take the home side.? ? Tags: College Basketball Fordham Rams Rhode Island Rams Brent Crow

Sports Betting Podcast 1-18-2012 with Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

Tags: College Basketball NBA Brent Crow Erin Rynning

College Basketball Betting Trends: Marshall looks to maintain ATS success vs. WVU

West Virginia -3.5 vs. Marshall O/U 135 Marshall and West Virginia renew their rivalry tonight in Charleston, WV. The Thundering Herd have owned the series from a pointspread perspective but tonight's matchup has seen a massive adjustment in the line compared to previous meetings. West Virginia vs. Marshall Series History 2005-11 Year Score SU Winner ATS Winner 2011 75-71 Marshall Marshall +10 2010 68-60 West Virginia Marshall +12.5 2009 87-76 West Virginia Marshall +15.5 2008 66-64 West Virginia Marshall +15.5 2007 77-63 West Virginia West Virginia -10 2006 58-52 Marshall Marshall +16 2005 59-55 Marshall Marshall +13.5 ?Tags: College Basketball West Virginia Mountaineers Marshall Thudering Herd

NFL Playoff Gambling: California bettors show support for 49ers at Reno sportsbooks

-NY Giants- at San Francisco -2.5 O/U 42 Reno's Peppermill and Cal Vena sportsbooks have seen a lot of betting support for the San Francisco 49ers. "Are you putting your money on the 49ers this weekend?" asked reporter Andrew Del Greco. "Of course," said Reyes. "Good luck," said Del Greco. "I'm going to bet my whole check if I have to," said Reyes. "The 49ers are going to the Super Bowl!" "Our ticket counts are up about 20 percent, it's mostly 49er fans," said Cox. Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers New York Giants

College Basketball Betting: Oklahoma State has trouble lasting 40 minutes

Oklahoma State at Iowa State -8 O/U 137 Oklahoma State's youth and lack of depth really showed in last week's 106-65 loss at Baylor. But it wasn't the first time those shortcomings were exposed. The Cowboys are 2-2 in Big XII play, but?have been?outscored in the second half in all four games by a combined 45 points. Fatigue obviously could be a favor tonight with Iowa State looking to push the tempo. The Cyclones aren?t an ideal mid-range favorite, but perhaps we'll have?a halftime opportunity with a cheaper adjusted price. Following the loss to Baylor, OSU head coach Travis Ford dropped this gem of a quote... ?I told our guys and I want them to understand this, ?It?s not about winning and losing at this point, it?s about how you are playing,?? Ford said. ?Because we can play well and still not maybe win the game. ?About eight to 10 minutes to go in the (Baylor) game, we didn?t have much fight in us.? ? ? Tags: College Basketball Oklahoma State Cowboys Iowa State Cyclones

NBA Handicapping: Clippers blasted in Utah sans Paul, return home to face Dallas

Dallas at LA Clippers Without Chris Paul, or any real desire to put forth an effort, this happened to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Head coach Vinny Del Negro wasn't shy about voicing his disappointment. The Clips still trail a majority of the team in terms of games played but will be facing the third game of a back-to-back-to-back tonight against Dallas. As of this morning, Paul (hamstring) was listed as questionable. ? "I didn?t like our approach," Del Negro said. "I didn?t like our focus. I didn?t like our toughness. I didn?t like our energy to start the game. We dug ourselves a hole. "We?re not going to win a lot of games playing with that type of effort. I don?t care if it is a back-to-back game, where we?re playing, how much rest they have. We have to play better than that." "We just came out and played poorly. We didn?t have good energy," Del Negro said. "We weren?t aggressive. They were more aggressive. Give Utah credit, but our starters didn?t get off to a good start with their energy defensively and Utah got into a rhythm. "There?re no excuses. We?ve got to bounce back tomorrow night and play much harder, play smarter, play tougher, and that?s what I expect." Tags: NBA Los Angeles Clippers Dallas Mavericks

NCAA Basketball Gambling: Indiana exposed on defense in Big Ten play

Indiana -4.5 at Nebraska O/U 131 Despite dropping back-to-back games, Indiana isn't going into panic mode as it travels to face Nebraska tonight. Despite some impressive wins this season, the Hoosiers continue to be exposed on the defensive end of the floor. Through six games in league play, IU ranks 12th in points per possession allowed (1.12), 11th in effective FG% (54.9) and 10th in 2-point FG% defense (55.3). The numbers should improve with their next three games against offensive challenged Nebraska, Penn State and Wisconsin. But the Hoosiers have built a rep in the betting markets and if they want to continue to win games (and cover pointspreads) they'll need to improve on the stopping the opposition. ?I think this is an important game because it?s the next game,? said IU freshman Cody Zeller. ?We?re just going to take this one game at a time whether we?re on a big winning streak or on a two-game losing streak. I think every game is important to us.? ?We?ve had two tough losses and now we have to bounce back from them,? Oladipo said. ?The most important game is our next one and that?s (today). We have to come out with an edge and with some energy.? ?Tags: College Basketball Indiana Hoosiers Nebraska Cornhuskers

NFL Playoff Betting News: High-octane offenses drop like flies

Baltimore at New England -7.5 O/U 50.5 Despite all of the offense that took place during the regular season, the postseason has already weeded out two of the top three offenses (Green Bay and New Orleans). The Patriots are the only team remaining but are they on borrowed time or will their situational defense be enough to survive? Don't forget that the Saints, Patriots and Packers ranked 30th, 31st and 32nd respectively against the pass this season. Also note that the New England is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven postseason contests (the lone cover last week vs. Denver). ? Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

NBA Handicapping: Dallas Mavericks one of many teams struggling to score

Some startling numbers?on how bad offenses have been in the NBA with a focus on the Dallas Mavericks who shot 35% in last night's ugly 73-70 loss to the Lakers. There are currently 21 teams shooting 45% or worse ? up from last year's 13. Nineteen teams are averaging 96 ppg or less. "Hasn't been there all year," Terry said of a Mavs offense that ranks 21st in scoring at 92.6 points a game and 22nd in field-goal percentage at 43.1. "But defensively, we're doing our job. We just have to make shots. Stay encouraged; defensively we're playing our ass off. We'll get there. Again, it was just an uncharacteristic, off-shooting night for us. I'm not really concerned." "Throughout the season," said Dirk Nowitzki, averaging just 17.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting and 19.2 percent from 3-point range, "I expect a lot of ugly games like that to happen. It's just normal." Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs: Statistical percentages vs. Betting lines

Quick look at the comparison between Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) playoffs odds and CRIS's betting lines. Here are the moneyline to percentage calculations based on CRIS's lines. New England (-350) is 78% to beat Baltimore San Francisco (-135) is 57% to beat New York Here are the odds to win the Super Bowl; moneyline and percentages. New England (+105) 48.7% New York Giants (+240) 29.4% San Francisco (+240) 29.4% Baltimore (+650) 13.3% ? Tags: NFL

NBA Betting Free Pick: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Submitted by Teddy CoversGolden State +2.5 at Cleveland O/U 196.5? Recommendation: Golden State Expect another strong effort out of Golden State tonight as they continue their road trip with a game in Cleveland against the Cavs.? Here?s what forward David Lee said on the eve of the trip: ?If we come back with a losing record from this road trip, it should be a huge disappointment. This is a road trip to places where we need to go take care of business and get three or possibly four victories. I don't see it any other way at this point." But Mark Jackson?s squad started the trip with a complete no-show in Charlotte, blown off the court by the lowly Bobcats.? They were outscored 66-46 before halftime, and never came close to making up the deficit in the final 24 minutes of play.? Forward Dominic McGuire: ?We took it for granted. We came out thinking this was an automatic win?.I don't think it was anything they did. They were hitting shots but ... 38 points for the Bobcats in the first quarter? C'mon." The Warriors bounced back strong against the Pistons on Sunday, coming away with an eight point road win as a 4.5 point underdog.? And their primed to do it again tonight, facing a tired Cleveland squad, playing on the second night of back-2-backs with their ninth consecutive court change as they return home following a grueling seven game road trip.? The Cavs stepped up in the second half to earn a much needed win at Charlotte yesterday, leaving them a tad bit ?fat and happy' here, as evidenced by this quote from head coach Byron Scott: ?I told the guys that if we can come off this seven-game trip with three wins, it?d be pretty good. And we did that. And we had some other close ones, so the road trip pretty much was a success.?? Look for the Cavs to really struggle matching the Warriors intensity this evening, especially without injured sharpshooting starter Anthony Parker in the lineup. Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers

Gambling on the NFL Playoffs: Baltimore prepares for trip to New England

Baltimore at New England -7.5 O/U 50.5 New England has defeated Baltimore six out of the last seven in the series, but the Ravens did win in Foxboro during the 2009 playoffs. Winning on the road during this year's regular season proved to be difficult for Baltimore but the team is instead focusing on its past success on the highway during the postseason (4-3 SU/ATS last four years). "The last four times we played them, going back to `97, all four of them have been wars," Johnson said. "Even though they've won three of the four, they had to earn it. This one is not going to be any different. It's going to be an extremely intense situation and environment, and we're looking forward to it. It's going to be fun." "I think it helps just by the fact that we've done it," he said. "Most of our team has been there before. Those young guys can relate to the older guys, and the older guys can share some wisdom. "But it's not going to impact necessarily this game except to the extent that our guys have been there before and it's certainly not going to be anything new to them. And that's a good thing." ?Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots

NFL Betting News: Sportsbooks in fear of a New York Giants Super Bowl run

Both offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks are facing some hefty payouts if the New York Giants continue to win. The Giants right now are our biggest loser if they were to win the Super Bowl,? Kevin Bradley, Bovada sportsbook manager told the New York Post last week. ?Before the first Cowboys-Giants game (in Week 14), we actually had a big customer put down a large bet on the Giants to win both the NFC crown and the Super Bowl,? Chris Andrews, assistant director of Club Cal Neva Sports Books, said. ?This customer took 60-1 for the Super Bowl and 30-1 for the conference." ?If the Giants win the Super Bowl, it will be a very nice score for the betting public,? says David Mason, spokesperson for Panama-based BetOnline.com. ?It seems like no matter the sport, there is just so much public money coming out of the Big Apple, we are more often than not exposed a bit. This year is no different. Even a season like this one, when the Giants had to go down to the wire to even make the playoffs, their faithful bettors always saw value in their long odds.? Tags: NFL New York Giants

Sports Betting Podcast 1-17-2012 with Rob Veno and Erin Rynning

Tags: College Basketball NBA Rob Veno Erin Rynning

Gambling on the NFL Playoffs: San Francisco well aware of different Giants team

The red hot Giants, led by quarterback Eli Manning, look to be a different bunch than the ones that traveled to San Francisco earlier in the year. The 49ers have taken notice. Some quotes and notes here from the Mercury News: "Eli's not throwing many interceptions," said 49ers cornerback Tarell Brown, who had one of the 49ers' two interceptions against Drew Brees in Saturday's 36-32 divisional win over the New Orleans Saints. Manning tallied nine touchdown passes, one interception and 953 yards as the Giants won their past three elimination games: A 31-14 victory over Dallas to clinch the NFC East, a 24-2 rout of the Atlanta Falcons in the wild-card round and Sunday's dethroning of the Packers. Manning had two passes intercepted in the Nov. 13 loss. His fateful 40th attempt was knocked down by lineman Justin Smith's right hand on fourth down with 34 seconds left. "Eli has been money all year," Smith said Monday. "(When) we played him, he was dropping balls in there that only the receiver could get to. It's going to be a tough matchup." Tags: NFL New York Giants San Francisco 49ers

NBA Betting Trends: Chicago Bulls fit strong profile for matchup vs. Phoenix

Pretty impressive betting trend in action tonight in the NBA with the Chicago Bulls off a game in which they allowed more than 100 points* (102-86 loss at Memphis). Over the last two seasons, the Bulls are an amazing 14-3 ATS and 4-13 O/U in this profile. The two 64-point performances came this season. The rest during the 2010-11 season. No line yet on tonight's game against Phoenix ? Derrick Rose currently listed as doubtful. *In regulation Chicago Bulls Betting Results Last Two Season After Allowing 100 points Opponent Points Allowed Bulls ATS Over/Under Phoenix ??? ??? ??? Washington 64 Win Under Memphis 64 Win Under Atlanta 83 Win Under Atlanta 73 Win Under Phoenix 94 Loss Under Sacramento 92 Win Over Washington 79 Win Under Miami 89 Win Under Portland 109 Loss Over Boston 79 Win Under Detroit 92 (OT) Loss Under Philadelphia 76 Win Over Oklahoma City 90 Win Under Denver 98 Win Under Dallas 83 Win Under Boston 110 (OT) Win Over Detroit 91 Win Under Results 86.2 pgg 14-3 ATS 4-13 O/U Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Phoenix Suns

NBA Handicapping: Phoenix Suns continue to struggle on offense

Phoenix at Chicago Article of Phoenix's struggles on offense this year. The Suns are averaging 11.2 ppg below last year's mark and don't feature a player in the top 50 in scoring. ?I think everyone is going to score more,? said Nash, who posted 20 points and 10 assists despite a sore quadriceps. ?There?s going to be more cohesion. We?ll see more balance, and we?ll see more guys scoring. It?ll get better.? ?We?ve got to have Channing shoot the ball better than he is,? Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. ?JD (Dudley) is starting to come into his own, shoot better and make plays. We?ve just got to get ourselves running and get easy layups. The history of our team and how it has shot well came from how we would get layups and dunks. To be in a half-court situation so often is not good.? ? Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Chicago Bulls

College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close against the spread results

Submitted by Fairway JayThis is Part I of a series of articles to be posted on college basketball results and the impact against the spread (ATS). I?m often asked about close results and usually emailed, tweeted or text a message about a close win or loss (usually loss). It?s important to understand some of the random variances that can take place in betting sports, and in this case college basketball. Over the course of a college basketball season the average margin of a final score will fall with 8-9 points from the betting line. Over the past few weeks we have suffered our share of close ATS losses, including 0-5 the past three days for results that landed within five points of the betting line. Along with some service selections, my personal wagering has resulted in a 0-5 recent run for games that landed within one point of the betting line.? Yet despite some recent less than desired results, we?ve been on quite a run on our top-rated Big Drive plays. Since late November the record stands 25-7. Through the winning run and full season, I spend many hours logging and tracking scores, stats and lines. I?ve been tracking scores and documenting the results as it relates to ATS wins and losses. In November I wrote a blog about ATS results. Over the years, I?ve used a 5-point result from the betting line as a pretty solid standard for random ATS results. Over the course of a college basketball season, approx. 40-42% of the games and final scores will land within five points of the betting line. In the opening month of the season covering over 580 lined games, 34.6% of the CBB games fell within five points of the betting line, proving that early season college basketball can be more beatable as the oddsmaker is not as sharp as it relates to final scores ATS. Understand that betting lines move based on market activity, and I?m usually grading from the closing line. But the results shown would still be close even to the opening line. In the month of December, there were over 660 CBB games. Of those games, 41.4% landed within five points of the betting line, and exactly 10% of the games landed within one point of the line; which is usually the average over the course of a CBB season. Regardless of your level of handicapping ability, long term results of these close ATS games should produce close to 50% ATS winners and losers. If you?re results are more losers than winners on these close ATS results, then you?re just having a negative random variance and unfortunate results. Along with line moves, bookmaker juice and other challenges in preparing to win and beat the bookmaker, it can be frustrating if you are suffering too many close ATS losses. We?ve experienced that first hand recently, going 5-13 on results that have landed within five points of the betting line in the month of January.?? We?ll review January results in Part II along with additional ATS parameters as we continue to evaluate the results, stats and match-ups, and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis in our never-ending pursuit of profit. Check back throughout each week for additional articles, analysis, insight and ?Fairway Forecasts? along with the best sports betting information at sportsmemo.com/blogs. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. He?s having another winning and profitable season in 2011-12 highlighted by 16-units of profit in December alone (1 and 2 unit scale). Fairway Jay?s current top-play Big Drive run is a bankroll-building 25-7 including 11-3 on his top-rated 20* Big Drive plays. Fairway Jay has won 67% of his top-rated Big Drive selections this college basketball season. Fairway Jay is a proven pro and performer in the college basketball game with a 5-year stretch of consecutive winning seasons and profits that placed him on the leaderboard among the nation?s top college basketball handicappers. With documented success and experience to battle with the best and beat the bookmaker, join Fairway Jay on the college basketball court and profit from his experience and well-rounded game. Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay Tags: College Basketball Fairway Jay

NCAA Basketball Gambling: Michigan looks for three straight over rival Michigan State

Michigan State -1 at Michigan O/U 131.5 Notes on tonight's Michigan State-Michigan matchup in Ann Arbor. Both teams come in off of losses ?MSU fell at Northwestern 81-74 and UM was blown out at Iowa, 75-59. The Wolverines has some pretty strong ATS trends in their favor: 15-4 ATS run vs. Big Ten, 27-8 ATS run as an underdog, 15-6 ATS run at home. Michigan won both meetings last season, 70-63 (-1) and 61-57 (+11). ? Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans

College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

Submitted by Andrew LangeMaryland at Florida State? Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State ? despite what the Seminoles? student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles ? for at least parts of tonight's game ? are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible ? something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad than it was at the start of the year. After adjusting some to first-year head coach Mark Turgeon and going to battle with a full complement of players, we've seen the Terps play some competitive basketball with 9 out of 10 wins (lone loss, 79-74 at NC State). They take a big step up in class defensively against FSU but this is a scrappy enough team to hang around. Look for the home side to come out a little flat as we make a play on the underdog in the first half.? Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads

Submitted by Andrew LangeTypically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason. But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 ? after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats ? but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young, and winning games by margin ? which often takes a full 40 minutes of effort with already inflated lines ? can be difficult with such a young cast of characters. The Cats have missed out more than a handful of covers by laying off the pedal late, not to mention they were wildly overpriced in their first two road games in the SEC. I think some of it can be attributed head coach John Calipari and his emphasis on development and gearing his young teams for the postseason. Unlike other squads, he doesn't have multiple years to develop team chemistry and teach these kids the little things involved in being a champion. He's handed a ton of inexperience and little to no time to teach them how to win. And the learning process, which we are witnessing right now, is forced to take place in games, rather than in practice or the offseason. As a result, Kentucky is winning a lot of games on sheer talent alone, which is a big reason why they've faltered against the spread at such a high rate. And I've seen enough of Calipari to know that close wins and losses are almost a welcome sight as they better prepare his teams for a Final Four run. I think moving forward, the Cats are going to stumble upon a handful of ATS victories but their struggles are no fluke if you break down all of the factors involved. Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange

NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: 71% of Missouri Valley games have gone OVER the total

Submitted by Andrew LangeBuilding on the blog we posted the other day about the increase in scoring in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The MVC has long been known as a grind-it-out league that on occasion sees a team or two willing to play up-tempo. Below is a chart of the team-by-team yearly pace rankings according to Ken Pom. As you can see, from 2008-10, the MVC's average rank was between 233 and 241. This season however, we've seen that number climb to 173 as half the league ranks 143 or higher. I think we'll see the overall pace numbers dip once these teams play more conference games which brings us to our next point. Amazingly, 25 of the MVC's 35 league games have gone over the total thus far. The only two teams to not trend towards the OVER in league play are ironically the league's two top offense, Creighton and Wichita State. And only one team (Drake, 6-9 O/U) has trended UNDER from a season long perspective. Missouri Valley Conference Tempo Numbers Team 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 O/U MVC Bradley 67 216 212 166 36 6-1 Creighton 159 84 206 255 71 3-4 Drake 271 274 295 206 143 5-2 Evansville 254 121 202 139 140 5-2 Illinois State 290 239 226 310 277 6-1 Indiana State 193 256 237 190 223 6-1 Missouri State 162 280 250 309 235 5-2 Northern Iowa 328 318 343 340 291 4-3 Southern Illinois 305 229 172 263 131 7-0 Wichita State 309 291 254 231 183 3-4 Average Rank 234 231 240 241 173 25-10 Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

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Source: http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?name=NCAA-Basketball-Gambling:-Indiana-exposed-on-defense-in-Big-Ten-play&blog_id=9009

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